A speaks the truth 8 times out of 10 times. A die is tossed. He reports that it was 5. What is the probability that it was actually 5?
is it the questn of total probabilty , or bayes theorem . identify kaise krna h isko experts .
Let E1 : The event that 5 comes on the die
and E2 : The event that 5 does not comes on the die
A: The event that man report it is a five
Probability that the man reports that there is a five on the die given than five comes on the die
Probability that the man reports that there is a five on the die given that five does not comes on the die
∴ By Baye's Theorem,
We have Probability that there is a five given than man reports that there is a five on the die
The questions in which we have any event say A which occurs with E1 or E2 or ..... or En , then we apply Baye's Theorem to find the Probability of Ei when A has already happened i.e. to find